So the call is to generate stories by loosening the goal of parity, and thereby creating good guys and bad guys. Giants and weaklings.
But meanwhile the NFL is a hard cap league and the NBA cap is getting harder and harder and yet they are fantastic sellers of the league. Even though the Celtics dominated last year the league did a great job creating the narrative that they might flop in the playoffs.
What MLS needs is a management team that knows the storylines and stars outside of Miami are critical and works to build them. They need a deliberate strategy.
NBA and NFL don’t struggle to separate a few teams every year despite the cap. For the NFL, I suspect this just has something to do with how sticky the marginal gains are in football. For the NBA something about the very strange rebuild vs super team phases most teams choose at any given time. I just think soccer washes away the former and the later is undesirable. But I’ll admit there’s something in individual driven narratives in NBA.
Good points. I think the “rebuild” strategy can’t work in MLS because there’s an “infinite” global market of talent to bring in. The strategy would quickly devolve into the narrative of - you can’t acquire good talent for the price.
In the NBA there is a reality that some players are outperforming the max contract - providing a marginal gain that is hard to catch up with. In soccer one has to always pay that person what they’re worth, even in MLS. Any gain over that price will evaporate relatively quickly.
I think in the NFL the hard cap places artificial constraints on market value. Quarterbacks are $50 million or so. But in reality probably they are worth more but other positions need to get paid as well. So QBs take less than they are worth and that opens the door for those marginal gains you mention.
Really good read. Completely agreed with your point. Unfortunately, I think the largest cause of this problem is the simple lack of relegation which doesn’t seem likely to be introduced anytime soon. The story of Leicester winning the Prem ans getting relegated a few seasons later, only to be brought back up by Vardy & co. just cannot happen in the MLS
If played right, the summer 2024 "Declared Roster Construction Model" rule change could help to catalyze some of narratives, as it provides an immediate shorthand for each team's priority. If they chose to go 3DP/3U22, they're probably more focused on winning now than developing future talent (to play or to sell) for the long-term, and if they chose to go 2DP/4U22, they're either confident in their ability to sign players under the maximum salary or are looking to build for the future.
Maybe next playoffs we see an inexpensive journeyman winger for the Fire miss an equalizing chance and think "they sure could've used a veteran finisher in a moment like that". I'll use it, at least.
Good read. I think the NHL suffers from a similar problem. It’s a hard cap league, unlike the NBA which allows instances of overspending. The NHL playoffs can be a blast because any team can win but it’s devoid of narrative.
So the call is to generate stories by loosening the goal of parity, and thereby creating good guys and bad guys. Giants and weaklings.
But meanwhile the NFL is a hard cap league and the NBA cap is getting harder and harder and yet they are fantastic sellers of the league. Even though the Celtics dominated last year the league did a great job creating the narrative that they might flop in the playoffs.
What MLS needs is a management team that knows the storylines and stars outside of Miami are critical and works to build them. They need a deliberate strategy.
NBA and NFL don’t struggle to separate a few teams every year despite the cap. For the NFL, I suspect this just has something to do with how sticky the marginal gains are in football. For the NBA something about the very strange rebuild vs super team phases most teams choose at any given time. I just think soccer washes away the former and the later is undesirable. But I’ll admit there’s something in individual driven narratives in NBA.
Good points. I think the “rebuild” strategy can’t work in MLS because there’s an “infinite” global market of talent to bring in. The strategy would quickly devolve into the narrative of - you can’t acquire good talent for the price.
In the NBA there is a reality that some players are outperforming the max contract - providing a marginal gain that is hard to catch up with. In soccer one has to always pay that person what they’re worth, even in MLS. Any gain over that price will evaporate relatively quickly.
I think in the NFL the hard cap places artificial constraints on market value. Quarterbacks are $50 million or so. But in reality probably they are worth more but other positions need to get paid as well. So QBs take less than they are worth and that opens the door for those marginal gains you mention.
Really good read. Completely agreed with your point. Unfortunately, I think the largest cause of this problem is the simple lack of relegation which doesn’t seem likely to be introduced anytime soon. The story of Leicester winning the Prem ans getting relegated a few seasons later, only to be brought back up by Vardy & co. just cannot happen in the MLS
https://substack.com/@thedailykrid/note/c-79201475?r=4p46ng
Check this out
If played right, the summer 2024 "Declared Roster Construction Model" rule change could help to catalyze some of narratives, as it provides an immediate shorthand for each team's priority. If they chose to go 3DP/3U22, they're probably more focused on winning now than developing future talent (to play or to sell) for the long-term, and if they chose to go 2DP/4U22, they're either confident in their ability to sign players under the maximum salary or are looking to build for the future.
If we look at the list here: https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-clubs-declare-roster-construction-models-for-2024-season-x3431 we can see that a few of your typical veteran-star spenders (Miami, LAFC, Chicago) have chosen to spend on youth for next year, while a few typical young-talent-developers have chosen the opposite (FC Dallas, Red Bulls, San Jose).
Maybe next playoffs we see an inexpensive journeyman winger for the Fire miss an equalizing chance and think "they sure could've used a veteran finisher in a moment like that". I'll use it, at least.
Good read. I think the NHL suffers from a similar problem. It’s a hard cap league, unlike the NBA which allows instances of overspending. The NHL playoffs can be a blast because any team can win but it’s devoid of narrative.