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Theory of Soccer Pt. 3: On Account of Bounce
What the rise of xG contributed to theory and what it did not
Tiotal Football
Feb 1
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Theory of Soccer Pt. 3: On Account of Bounce
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Theory of Soccer Pt. 2: The Abstract
Reframing a macro and micro general theory of soccer
Tiotal Football
Dec 16, 2021
13
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Theory of Soccer Pt. 2: The Abstract
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Theory of Soccer Pt. 1: The Prevailing Orthodox Theories of Soccer
John Maynard Keynes begins his magnum opus, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by explaining why he has titled the book the “General…
Tiotal Football
Dec 7, 2021
19
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Theory of Soccer Pt. 1: The Prevailing Orthodox Theories of Soccer
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Theory of Transfer Fees
Slouching with mixed success toward a semi-coherent framework
Tiotal Football
Sep 27, 2021
6
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Theory of Transfer Fees
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On Tracking Data, the Nature of Soccer, and Allocation
Don't take event data at its word
Tiotal Football
Jul 12, 2021
9
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Adding risk to the equation
Where Alex Morgan, Christen Press and the CAPM meet
Jared Young
Feb 5, 2021
2
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Adding risk to the equation
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"Benchmarking" via a "Required Rate of Return"
Leaving the numerator and going down below
Tiotal Football
Jan 29, 2021
4
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Rounding Out Player Projections: The Complexity of "Opportunity"
Taking our projected player contribution abilities and combining them with opportunities to contribute to project actual contribution.
Tiotal Football
Dec 23, 2020
1
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Rounding Out Player Projections: The Complexity of "Opportunity"
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Projections Deep Dive: The Game Model and "Player Fit"
Adding back our own team effects into the target player projections
Tiotal Football
Dec 3, 2020
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Projections Deep Dive: The Game Model and "Player Fit"
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Projections Deep Dive: Re-levering with a Team Performance Model
Analyzing the "Value Chain" to identify where club activities interact with player talent to affect results and contributions
Tiotal Football
Nov 9, 2020
3
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Projections Deep Dive: Re-levering with a Team Performance Model
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Projections Deep Dive: Team Effects & Aging Curves
Working through the first two layers of systematically projecting player contribution ability
Tiotal Football
Oct 16, 2020
2
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Projections Deep Dive: Team Effects & Aging Curves
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Converting Historical Results into Projections: An Outline
Let's get Steps 3 & 4 started cuz they're hard as hell
Tiotal Football
Oct 8, 2020
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Converting Historical Results into Projections: An Outline
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