Theory of Transfer FeesSlouching with mixed success toward a semi-coherent framework
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On Tracking Data, the Nature of Soccer, and AllocationDon't take event data at its word
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Adding risk to the equationWhere Alex Morgan, Christen Press and the CAPM meet
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"Benchmarking" via a "Required Rate of Return"Leaving the numerator and going down below
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Rounding Out Player Projections: The Complexity of "Opportunity"Taking our projected player contribution abilities and combining them with opportunities to contribute to project actual contribution.
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Projections Deep Dive: The Game Model and "Player Fit"Adding back our own team effects into the target player projections
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Projections Deep Dive: Re-levering with a Team Performance ModelAnalyzing the "Value Chain" to identify where club activities interact with player talent to affect results and contributions
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Projections Deep Dive: Team Effects & Aging CurvesWorking through the first two layers of systematically projecting player contribution ability
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Converting Historical Results into Projections: An OutlineLet's get Steps 3 & 4 started cuz they're hard as hell
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Pit-stop: Odds & EndsA glance at the road map and some assorted "Absolute Unit" relevant thoughts on EPVs
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Reducing noise with pro-forma adjustmentsStep 2: Use consensus soccer analytics insights to prime your soccer accounting records for safe use going forward into the unknown.
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Adding GoalsEnhance your soccer event data with an "expected possession value" model to breathe life into the raw accounting records
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